Race Winner odds. Top seven.
Live as of 2026-09-24. Russell and Norris are level at +400. Leclerc and Hamilton are level at +1200. Full 22-driver market further down the page. $10 minimum. Crypto and USD.
| Pos | Driver | Team | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | +120 |
| 02 | George Russell | Mercedes | +400 |
| 03 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +400 |
| 04 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | +800 |
| 05 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +1200 |
| 06 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +1200 |
| 07 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +2000 |
The 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is on Saturday, September 26. Lights out at 3:00 PM local time in Baku. 51 laps of the Baku City Circuit. Kimi Antonelli is the +120 favorite.
Saturday, not Sunday. September 27 is Remembrance Day in Azerbaijan, so the whole weekend moved up a day. Practice on Thursday. Qualifying on Friday. Race on Saturday.
And here is the thing about Baku. The favorite rarely gets a clean run at it. Pole has turned into victory three times in nine races here. The walls, the Safety Cars and the long flat-out run to Turn 1 see to that.
Race Weekend Schedule — Thursday to Saturday
Everything runs a day early this year. All times are local time in Baku.
| Session | Day | Local Time |
|---|---|---|
| Practice 1 | Thu Sep 24 | 12:30 PM |
| Practice 2 | Thu Sep 24 | 4:00 PM |
| Practice 3 | Fri Sep 25 | 12:30 PM |
| Qualifying | Fri Sep 25 | 4:00 PM |
| Race (51 laps) | Sat Sep 26 | 3:00 PM |
This is the first time in Baku's history that the race runs on a Saturday.
The Circuit
Baku City Circuit. 6.003 km. Two tracks in one lap.
Sector one is long straights and big stops. Sector two turns into a maze through the Old Town. At the Turn 8 and 9 castle section, the track is just 7.6 meters wide. Then comes the long flat-out run along the seafront, from the final corner all the way to Turn 1.
That run shapes everything. Slipstream is worth a huge chunk of lap time. The tires cool on the way down, so front lock-ups into Turn 1 are a live risk. Turn 15 is the one drivers fear: an unsighted left-hander with walls waiting for anyone who carries too much speed.
Turns 2, 3 and 4 have been resurfaced. Grip starts low on Thursday and builds hard as rubber goes down. Early practice times lie. Friday tells you more.
| Stat | Detail |
|---|---|
| Circuit Length | 6.003 km |
| Race Distance | 306.049 km (51 laps) |
| Lap Record | 1:43.009, Charles Leclerc (2019) |
| Narrowest Point | 7.6 m (Turns 8/9, Old Town) |
| Pole to Turn 1 Braking | 111 m, shortest on the calendar |
| Overtakes in 2025 | 55 |
| Safety Car Probability | 67% (previous six races) |
| Virtual Safety Car Probability | 50% (previous six races) |
| Pit Stop Time Loss | 19.27 s (including 2.5 s stationary) |
| Tire Compounds | C3 / C4 / C5 |
| First Grand Prix | 2016 (as the European GP). Azerbaijan GP from 2017. |
Pole Is a Head Start. Not a Result.
Monaco gets decided on Saturday. Baku does not. Pole has converted three times in nine races here, and only once in the last five.
Charles Leclerc owns the pole record with four in a row from 2021 to 2024. He won none of those races. Max Verstappen took pole last year and finally made it stick.
REBEL EDGE
Do not pay a pole premium in Baku. Four of the last five winners started somewhere other than pole. If a price collapses on Friday night purely because a driver is P1, the history here says the market has moved too far.
Pole vs Winner at Baku
| Year | Pole Sitter | Race Winner | Pole Won? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Verstappen | Verstappen | Yes |
| 2024 | Leclerc | Piastri | No |
| 2023 | Leclerc | Perez | No |
| 2022 | Leclerc | Verstappen | No |
| 2021 | Leclerc | Perez | No |
| 2019 | Bottas | Bottas | Yes |
| 2018 | Vettel | Hamilton | No |
| 2017 | Hamilton | Ricciardo | No |
| 2016 | Rosberg | Rosberg | Yes |
No race was held in 2020. The 2016 event ran as the European Grand Prix.
Constructor Record at Baku
Red Bull have won here five times. Ferrari have taken five poles and never won. That gap tells you what Baku rewards: race craft, strategy calls and a car that survives the walls, not one fast lap on Friday.
| Constructor | Baku Wins | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Red Bull | 5 | 2017, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025. One pole. |
| Mercedes | 3 | 2016, 2018, 2019. Three poles. |
| McLaren | 1 | 2024. No poles. |
| Ferrari | 0 | Five poles: Vettel 2018, Leclerc 2021 to 2024. |
REBEL EDGE
Ferrari qualifying speed in Baku has not turned into wins. Back a Ferrari here on race pace and strategy, not on grid slot. At +1200 each, Leclerc and Hamilton are priced for what happens Saturday, not Friday.
Form Guide — Antonelli Arrives 81 Points Clear
Kimi Antonelli leads the championship by 81 points over George Russell. He won back-to-back in Monza and Madrid. The market has him at +120 for a reason.
Lando Norris, the reigning world champion, won in Hungary and the Netherlands. He was on pole in Madrid and lost a potential win when the timing of a Virtual Safety Car went against him. Remember that when you get to the Safety Car section.
Ferrari had a split weekend in Madrid. Hamilton retired with a brake issue. Leclerc finished fourth. Verstappen arrives off two straight podiums.
What Practice 1 Showed
Russell topped FP1 with a 1:45.387. Verstappen was 0.400 behind, Leclerc 0.404, Hamilton 0.437. Antonelli pulled off at Turn 7 after 25 minutes with a hydraulic issue and still finished fifth. Norris was only 14th after McLaren kept him in the garage for most of the session.
Isack Hadjar is back after missing three rounds with a wrist injury. A power unit issue left him 20th. Williams brought a heavy upgrade and Sainz's first run ended with the rear brakes on fire.
REBEL EDGE
Antonelli lost half of FP1 to a hydraulic fault and his price did not move off +120. The market trusts the Mercedes. Russell topped the session and sits at +400. If you believe the car, the teammate is the bigger number. Qualifying is Friday at 4:00 PM local. Check the grid before you commit.
Safety Car & VSC — Where Baku Gets Decided
A Safety Car appeared in 67% of the previous six races here. A Virtual Safety Car appeared in 50%. Walls everywhere, a 7.6 meter castle section and a big stop at the end of the longest run on the lap. Something usually gives.
A green-flag stop costs 19.27 seconds. Under a Safety Car or VSC it costs far less. In a one-stop race, the team that pits under a neutralized race gains the most. The team that pitted a lap earlier loses it. Madrid just showed how much that is worth.
| Market | Selection | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safety Car During Race | Yes | 80.0% | -400 |
| Safety Car During Race | No | 26.7% | +275 |
| Total Safety Cars | Over 1.5 | 57.4% | -135 |
| Total Safety Cars | Under 1.5 | 48.8% | +105 |
| VSC During Race | Yes | 64.9% | -185 |
| VSC During Race | No | 41.7% | +140 |
| Total VSCs | Over 1.5 | 30.8% | +225 |
| Total VSCs | Under 1.5 | 75.6% | -310 |
| Both SC and VSC | Yes | 54.5% | -120 |
| Both SC and VSC | No | 52.4% | -110 |
Implied probability is the price converted to a percentage. It includes the bookmaker margin, which is why the Yes and No sides add up to more than 100%.
REBEL EDGE
Price against history. Safety Car Yes at -400 implies 80%. The six-race record is 67%. VSC Yes at -185 implies 65% against a 50% record. The market already prices Baku chaos above what the record shows. Six races is a small sample, so weigh it, but do not mistake a short price for a sure thing.
Tire Strategy — One Stop, Timed to the Safety Car
Pirelli brings the C3 as the hard, the C4 as the medium and the C5 as the soft. The asphalt is smooth and not very abrasive, so wear and degradation should be very low. Pirelli expects a one-stop race and says the C5 could run particularly long stints. The hard may barely get used.
With wear this low, the pit window is wide open. That turns strategy into a waiting game. Teams will run long and hope a Safety Car hands them a cheap stop.
REBEL EDGE
Low wear plus a 67% Safety Car rate means the running order at half distance can be fiction. Drivers who start on the harder tire and run long have the most to gain from a late neutralization. Watch who is still out when the Safety Car board comes out.
To Finish the Race — Pricing the Walls
This market prices reliability and survival. The front five are all at -2000. Lance Stroll and Sergio Perez are the shortest odds on the board to be classified finishers, at -150 each.
| Driver | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | -2000 | 95.2% |
| George Russell | -2000 | 95.2% |
| Kimi Antonelli | -2000 | 95.2% |
| Lando Norris | -2000 | 95.2% |
| Lewis Hamilton | -2000 | 95.2% |
| Max Verstappen | -1600 | 94.1% |
| Oscar Piastri | -1400 | 93.3% |
| Isack Hadjar | -850 | 89.5% |
| Liam Lawson | -850 | 89.5% |
| Franco Colapinto | -750 | 88.2% |
| Pierre Gasly | -750 | 88.2% |
| Arvid Lindblad | -650 | 86.7% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | -500 | 83.3% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | -500 | 83.3% |
| Alex Albon | -350 | 77.8% |
| Carlos Sainz | -350 | 77.8% |
| Oliver Bearman | -350 | 77.8% |
| Esteban Ocon | -325 | 76.5% |
| Fernando Alonso | -175 | 63.6% |
| Valtteri Bottas | -175 | 63.6% |
| Lance Stroll | -150 | 60.0% |
| Sergio Perez | -150 | 60.0% |
Race Winner Market — All 22 Drivers
| Pos | Driver | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | +120 |
| 02 | George Russell | Mercedes | +400 |
| 03 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +400 |
| 04 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | +800 |
| 05 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +1200 |
| 06 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +1200 |
| 07 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +2000 |
| 08 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | +10000 |
| 09 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | +10000 |
| 10 | Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | +50000 |
| 11 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | +50000 |
| 12 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | +50000 |
| 13 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | +50000 |
| 14 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | +50000 |
| 15 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | +100000 |
| 16 | Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | +100000 |
| 17 | Sergio Perez | Cadillac | +150000 |
| 18 | Alex Albon | Williams | +250000 |
| 19 | Carlos Sainz | Williams | +250000 |
| 20 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +300000 |
| 21 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +300000 |
| 22 | Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | +400000 |
American odds. A $10 bet at +120 returns $22 including your stake if it wins. $10 minimum. Crypto and USD.
Moments That Define Baku Betting
Context builds conviction. These races explain why Baku plays the way it does.
2017
Ricciardo From 10th
Daniel Ricciardo won the first race run as the Azerbaijan Grand Prix from 10th on the grid, still the lowest start for a Baku winner. The highlight was a three-car pass down the main straight into Turn 1. If you only back the front row here, this is the race that should stop you.
2021
The Leader Goes Out
Max Verstappen suffered a tire failure while leading. Sergio Perez took the win. Leclerc had started from pole. A big lead at Baku is never a finished race.
2022
Pole, Then Smoke
Leclerc on pole again. His engine failed and he retired on lap 21. Verstappen won. Baku punishes reliability as hard as it punishes mistakes.
2024
The Fourth Pole That Got Away
Leclerc's fourth straight Baku pole. Oscar Piastri won it. Pole backers went home empty again.
2025
Pole Finally Sticks
Verstappen converted pole into the win. Piastri, then leading the championship, found the wall. The circuit bites title leaders too.
Azerbaijan GP Betting — FAQ
When is the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix is on Saturday, September 26, with the race starting at 3:00 PM local time in Baku.
How many laps is the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix is 51 laps at Baku City Circuit, covering 306.049 km.
What is the Safety Car probability at Baku?
F1 lists a 67% Safety Car probability based on the previous six Azerbaijan races and a 50% Virtual Safety Car probability.
Who has the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix wins?
Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen have two Azerbaijan Grand Prix wins each.
Who has the most Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole positions?
Charles Leclerc has four Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole positions.
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