Race Winner odds. Top seven.
Live as of 2026-09-29. Leclerc and Hamilton are level at +1000. Full 22-driver market further down the page. $10 minimum. Crypto and USD.
| Pos | Driver | Team | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | +140 |
| 02 | George Russell | Mercedes | +300 |
| 03 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +700 |
| 04 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | +750 |
| 05 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +1000 |
| 06 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +1000 |
| 07 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +1100 |
The 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix is on Sunday, October 4, at 3:00 PM local time. Not in Bahrain. At Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia, over 56 laps. Kimi Antonelli is the +140 favorite.
The April race in Sakhir was called off because of the conflict in the Middle East. Formula 1, the FIA and the governments of Bahrain and Malaysia moved it to Sepang. Bahrain keeps the name. Malaysia gets F1 back for the first time since 2017.
And here is the thing. Nobody on the grid has data for these cars at this track. Add tropical storms and a race start in the afternoon storm window. This is the least predictable weekend of the year.
Race Weekend Schedule — Friday to Sunday
A standard weekend. All times are local time in Malaysia (UTC+8).
| Session | Day | Local Time |
|---|---|---|
| Practice 1 | Fri Oct 2 | 12:30 PM |
| Practice 2 | Fri Oct 2 | 4:00 PM |
| Practice 3 | Sat Oct 3 | 12:30 PM |
| Qualifying | Sat Oct 3 | 4:00 PM |
| Race (56 laps) | Sun Oct 4 | 3:00 PM |
Sepang is the middle leg of a triple-header. Baku came first. Singapore follows on October 11.
The Circuit
Sepang International Circuit. 5.543 km. Built for F1 and it shows.
Long straights, then a run of high-speed corners packed into the middle sector. Pirelli rates the energy through the tires as medium, in the same band as Spa-Francorchamps and Shanghai.
The surface is abrasive, with roughness Pirelli compares to Bahrain. Turns 6 to 12 were resurfaced in 2023, with more work around Turn 9. Leveling and cleaning started in early September. Pirelli's engineers say the surface still behaves much like it did in 2017.
Expect low grip on Friday. It should build through the weekend as rubber goes down.
| Stat | Detail |
|---|---|
| Circuit Length | 5.543 km |
| Race Laps | 56 |
| Corners | 15 |
| Tire Energy | Medium (Pirelli: similar to Spa and Shanghai) |
| Surface | Abrasive. Turns 6 to 12 resurfaced in 2023. |
| Race Lap Record | 1:34.080, Sebastian Vettel (2017) |
| Last Pole Time | 1:30.076, Lewis Hamilton (2017) |
| Grands Prix Held | 19 (1999 to 2017). 2026 is the 20th. |
| Pole Converted to Win | 9 of 19 |
REBEL EDGE
No team has relevant data for the current cars at Sepang. Pirelli says Friday practice matters more than usual this weekend. The first two sessions will move this market harder than any normal Friday. If you have a view, it gets tested on Friday afternoon.
Weather — The Variable Nobody Can Model
Afternoon thunderstorms are a regular feature around Sepang in early October. Pirelli says they could hit any session. The race starts at 3:00 PM, right in that window.
The forecasts agree on heat and disagree on rain. Highs of 32 to 33°C, lows around 24°C, with humidity pushing the heat index into the low 40s. In forecasts published between September 27 and 29, put Sunday's rain chance anywhere from 56% to 75%. Treat that range as the honest answer. It will move before Sunday.
The 2026 cars have not yet run a fully wet competitive session. If Sepang delivers one, every team is guessing at once.
| Factor | What to Expect |
|---|---|
| Air Temperature | 24°C to 33°C across the weekend |
| Heat Index | Around 43°C forecast for Friday |
| Rain Risk | Showers forecast on all three days. Sunday 56% to 75% depending on the forecast. |
| Storm Pattern | Afternoon thunderstorms typical in early October |
REBEL EDGE
Rain has written Sepang history before. The 2009 race was stopped and only half points were awarded. In 2012 Alonso won from eighth on the grid. If the storms arrive at 3:00 PM, grid order and form guides lose value fast. That is the case for the Red Flag and Safety Car markets below, and against paying a short price on anyone.
Tires — Softer Than the Safe Choice
Pirelli brings the C2 as the hard, the C3 as the medium and the C4 as the soft. That is one step softer than the conservative option this track would normally get.
The reason is strategy. Pirelli wants the time gap between a one-stop and a two-stop race to shrink, so teams have real choices. On an abrasive surface in tropical heat, thermal degradation across both axles is the key variable.
| Label | Compound | Role at Sepang |
|---|---|---|
| Soft | C4 | Qualifying and short attacking stints |
| Medium | C3 | Likely race workhorse |
| Hard | C2 | Long stints if heat punishes the softer tires |
Pirelli has also warned that nobody has proper tire data for these cars here. Its compound choice was built on 2017 information.
REBEL EDGE
A narrower gap between one and two stops means more split strategies. Split strategies mean more shuffling late in the race. That favors cars that are kind to their tires in heat, not just the fastest car over one lap.
Pit Lane — 22.5 Seconds to Stop
Pirelli's technical sheet puts the average pit stop loss at Sepang at around 22.5 seconds, as reported ahead of the weekend. Baku was 19.27 seconds.
A longer stop makes a green-flag stop more expensive. It also makes a stop under a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car worth more. Every extra second saved under a neutralized race is a second someone else lost.
The market prices a Safety Car at -115 either way. That is close to a coin flip, far lower than Baku's -400.
REBEL EDGE
With a 22.5 second stop and a real chance of rain, the pit wall call is part of the bet. Teams that react fast to a shower or a Safety Car can gain several places in one lap. Teams that hesitate lose them.
Championship Standings After Round 15
Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers' championship on 302 points, 66 clear of teammate George Russell. Mercedes lead the constructors' championship by 160 points over Ferrari.
What Baku Changed
Russell won in Baku from pole, led every lap and set fastest lap. It was his third win of the season. Verstappen finished second and Hadjar third, a double podium for Red Bull.
Antonelli crashed in qualifying, started 16th and still finished fifth. That cut his lead from 81 points to 66. Norris went out after a collision triggered by Franco Colapinto. Colapinto takes a five-place grid penalty into this race. Piastri locked up at a Safety Car restart and finished 14th.
Drivers' Championship: Top 10
| Pos | Driver | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 302 |
| 2 | George Russell | Mercedes | 236 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 199 |
| 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 186 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 179 |
| 6 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | 163 |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 120 |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | 86 |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | 59 |
| 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 41 |
Constructors' Championship
| Pos | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 538 |
| 2 | Ferrari | 378 |
| 3 | McLaren | 306 |
| 4 | Red Bull Racing | 263 |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | 83 |
| 6 | Alpine | 68 |
| 7 | Haas | 27 |
| 8 | Audi | 17 |
| 9 | Williams | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 3 |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 |
REBEL EDGE
Mercedes have the leader, the runner-up and the best car. The market makes both Mercedes drivers finishing top three a -110 coin flip. That price assumes their form travels to a track nobody has data for, in weather nobody can call. Decide whether you believe both halves of that.
Race Specials — Safety Car, VSC and Red Flag
These markets price disruption. At a track with storms in the forecast and no current data, disruption is the main question.
| Market | Selection | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Flag in Race | Yes | 16.7% | +500 |
| Red Flag in Race | No | 90.0% | -900 |
| Safety Car During Race | Yes | 53.5% | -115 |
| Safety Car During Race | No | 53.5% | -115 |
| Total Safety Cars | Over 1.5 | 25.0% | +300 |
| Total Safety Cars | Under 1.5 | 81.8% | -450 |
| VSC During Race | Yes | 48.8% | +105 |
| VSC During Race | No | 57.4% | -135 |
| Total VSCs | Over 1.5 | 20.0% | +400 |
| Total VSCs | Under 1.5 | 86.7% | -650 |
| Both SC and VSC | Yes | 30.8% | +225 |
| Both SC and VSC | No | 75.6% | -310 |
Implied probability is the price converted to a percentage. It includes the bookmaker margin, so both sides of a market add up to more than 100%.
REBEL EDGE
A red flag at +500 implies about 17%. The one Sepang race stopped for rain, in 2009, ended with half points. If Sunday's forecast firms toward storms at 3:00 PM, this is the price that moves first.
Qualifying Markets
Qualifying is Saturday at 4:00 PM local time, again in the storm window.
| Market | Selection | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pole Margin | Under 0.1 seconds | 40.0% | +150 |
| Pole Margin | 0.1 to 0.2 seconds | 33.3% | +200 |
| Pole Margin | Over 0.2 seconds | 38.5% | +160 |
| Pole Time Thousandths | Any digit 0 to 9 | 10.5% | +850 each |
The thousandths market is pure chance. Every digit is priced the same.
Both Drivers Top 3 — Team Podium Market
| Team | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | -110 | 52.4% |
| Ferrari | +600 | 14.3% |
| McLaren | +800 | 11.1% |
| Red Bull Racing | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Racing Bulls | +25000 | 0.4% |
| Alpine | +30000 | 0.3% |
| Williams | +30000 | 0.3% |
| Audi | +35000 | 0.3% |
| Aston Martin | +50000 | 0.2% |
| Cadillac | +50000 | 0.2% |
| Haas | +50000 | 0.2% |
Mercedes are the only team priced shorter than even money to fill two podium places.
Race Winner Market — All 22 Drivers
| Pos | Driver | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | +140 |
| 02 | George Russell | Mercedes | +300 |
| 03 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +700 |
| 04 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing | +750 |
| 05 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +1000 |
| 06 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | +1000 |
| 07 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +1100 |
| 08 | Isack Hadjar | Red Bull Racing | +2500 |
| 09 | Alex Albon | Williams | +50000 |
| 10 | Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | +50000 |
| 11 | Carlos Sainz | Williams | +50000 |
| 12 | Esteban Ocon | Haas | +50000 |
| 13 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +50000 |
| 14 | Franco Colapinto | Alpine | +50000 |
| 15 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | +50000 |
| 16 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +50000 |
| 17 | Liam Lawson | Racing Bulls | +50000 |
| 18 | Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | +50000 |
| 19 | Oliver Bearman | Haas | +50000 |
| 20 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | +50000 |
| 21 | Sergio Perez | Cadillac | +50000 |
| 22 | Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | +50000 |
American odds. A $10 bet at +140 returns $24 including your stake if it wins. $10 minimum. Crypto and USD.
Sepang History — 19 Races, 1999 to 2017
Sebastian Vettel won here four times, more than anyone. Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso won three each. Ferrari won seven, Red Bull five. Three drivers on the 2026 grid have won at Sepang: Alonso (3), Hamilton (1) and Verstappen (1).
Pole won 9 of the 19 races. Treat the old results as context, not form. The cars, the tires and the rules are all different.
| Year | Winner | Team | Grid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Verstappen | Red Bull | 3 |
| 2016 | Ricciardo | Red Bull | 4 |
| 2015 | Vettel | Ferrari | 2 |
| 2014 | Hamilton | Mercedes | 1 |
| 2013 | Vettel | Red Bull | 1 |
| 2012 | Alonso | Ferrari | 8 |
| 2011 | Vettel | Red Bull | 1 |
| 2010 | Vettel | Red Bull | 3 |
| 2009 | Button | Brawn | 1 |
| 2008 | Raikkonen | Ferrari | 2 |
| 2007 | Alonso | McLaren | 2 |
| 2006 | Fisichella | Renault | 1 |
| 2005 | Alonso | Renault | 1 |
| 2004 | M. Schumacher | Ferrari | 1 |
| 2003 | Raikkonen | McLaren | 7 |
| 2002 | R. Schumacher | Williams | 4 |
| 2001 | M. Schumacher | Ferrari | 1 |
| 2000 | M. Schumacher | Ferrari | 1 |
| 1999 | Irvine | Ferrari | 2 |
1999
The Comeback
Michael Schumacher returned from a broken leg, took pole and let teammate Eddie Irvine through to win. Both Ferraris were disqualified for illegal bargeboards, then reinstated on appeal.
2009
Half Points
Rain stopped the race. Jenson Button won for Brawn and only half points were awarded. Proof that the weather can end a race early here.
2012
Alonso From Eighth
Fernando Alonso won in the rain from eighth on the grid, the lowest winning start at Sepang. He is still on the grid in 2026.
2013
Multi 21
Red Bull told Sebastian Vettel to stay behind Mark Webber. He passed him anyway and won. Team orders at Sepang are a story, not a certainty.
2017
The Last One
Max Verstappen won the last race at Sepang, the day after his 20th birthday. He started third.
Bahrain GP in Malaysia Betting — FAQ
When is the 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix?
The 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix is on Sunday, October 4, at Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia. The 56-lap race starts at 3:00 PM local time.
Why is the Bahrain Grand Prix being held in Malaysia?
The Bahrain Grand Prix was cancelled from its original April date because of conflict in the Middle East. Formula 1, the FIA and the governments of Bahrain and Malaysia agreed to run it at Sepang from October 2 to 4, under the Bahrain Grand Prix name.
Who has won the most Formula 1 races at Sepang?
Sebastian Vettel won four times at Sepang, in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015. Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso won three each. Ferrari won seven times, the most of any team.
How often does pole position win at Sepang?
Pole position won 9 of the 19 Malaysian Grands Prix held at Sepang between 1999 and 2017. The lowest grid slot to win was eighth, Fernando Alonso in the rain in 2012.
What tires will Pirelli bring to Sepang in 2026?
Pirelli has selected the C2 as the hard, the C3 as the medium and the C4 as the soft. The choice is meant to close the gap between one-stop and two-stop strategies on an abrasive surface.
Who leads the 2026 Formula 1 championship?
After 15 rounds, Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers' championship with 302 points, 66 ahead of Mercedes teammate George Russell. Mercedes lead the constructors' championship with 538 points, 160 ahead of Ferrari.
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